The Treasury Morning Brief

A sample edition

This is the complimentary Treasury Morning Brief of Friday, September 25, 2026, shown as the email renders. The same issue goes to every subscriber; it describes deposit-funded balance sheets generally and does not address any institution’s own position.

Sample edition of Friday, September 25, 2026. It measures what the day’s moves do to a balance sheet; it does not recommend any securities transaction or deposit-pricing action, and it is not investment advice.

Daily Desk Read · Complimentary Sample · Setnova Advisory
SETNOVA ADVISORY · TREASURY & ALM
Treasury Morning Brief
A hawkish September hike lifts the whole curve — higher new-money yields, deeper marks, tighter EVE.
Friday, September 25, 2026  ·  Treasury curve as of Sep 24 close; other levels dated where shown  ·  Fed funds 3.75%–4.00% (raised Sep 16)
The Read
The FOMC raised the funds target 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 — its first hike since 2023, on a unanimous vote — and the September projections put the year-end 2026 rate at a 4.1% median (central tendency 4.1–4.4%). Headline CPI at 3.4% y/y and core PCE at 3.3% y/y remain above target. Two-year Treasuries sit 99 bp above effective fed funds, a level consistent with markets pricing further tightening.
The curve sold off. The 2-year closed at 4.87% and the 10-year at 5.18%, near the top of its post-2007 range, with the 30-year at 5.47%. The slope stayed positive but shallow at +31 bp on 2s10s, 5 bp steeper than the day before.
For any deposit-funded balance sheet the tension is the same: higher new-money yields on one side, deeper AFS marks and tighter EVE on the other. The FDIC’s Q2 profile, from before the hike, showed the industry margin up 1 basis point as asset yields rose slightly faster than funding costs. What follows is market context, not investment advice.
Rates & Curvecurve Sep 24 close · EFFR, SOFR Sep 23 · policy rates Sep 16
Fed funds target
3.75%–4.00%
raised Sep 16
EFFR
3.88%
Sep 23
SOFR
3.87%
Sep 23
2Y UST
4.87%
Sep 24
10Y UST
5.18%
Sep 24
30Y UST
5.47%
Sep 24
30Y mortgage
7.03%
Freddie · Sep 24
Core CPI y/y
2.4%
August
Core PCE y/y
3.3%
July
IG OAS
77 bp
Sep 23
Policy corridor: IORB 3.90% · ON RRP 3.75% · discount window 4.00%. Inflation: headline CPI 3.4% y/y, core CPI 2.4% y/y (Aug); headline PCE 3.7% y/y, core PCE 3.3% y/y (Jul).
Levels from U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, NY Fed and Freddie Mac.
Curve Snapshot & This Week’s Data
Treasury curve ladder · Sep 24 close
3M6M1Y2Y5Y10Y30Y
4.24%4.34%4.51%4.87%5.03%5.18%5.47%
2s10s
+31 bp
3M10Y
+94 bp
5s30s
+44 bp
This week
Wed Sep 23S&P Global Flash PMIs (mfg + services), Septemberdone
Thu Sep 24Weekly jobless claims; New home sales (Aug)done
Fri Sep 25Durable goods (Aug); UMich consumer sentiment, revised (Sep)today
Wed Sep 30GDP Q2 third estimate + August Personal Income & Outlays (PCE)ahead
Markets in Brief
S&P 500
7,704.13
Sep 24 close
Nasdaq
26,939.37
Sep 24 close
Dow
51,349.98
Sep 24 close
The dollar, oil and gold are omitted on this page: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available.
Commentary
Overnight & the curve
SOFR printed 3.87% and EFFR 3.88%, both inside the new 3.75%–4.00% band, with IORB at 3.90% and the ON RRP floor at 3.75%. The front end has fully absorbed the hike; the back end did the work, with the 10-year at 5.18% and the 30-year at 5.47%. A shallow-but-positive slope (3M10Y +94 bp) reads as “higher, and higher for longer.”
Funding & deposit market
Renewal betas are being tested against a 4.45% top 12-month CD and 4.20% savings, while the FDIC’s Q2 profile shows deposits still growing but the mix tilting toward uninsured balances. Wholesale sits alongside: the discount window 4.00% and FHLB advances tracking the short curve. New-money yields are higher, and AFS market values are lower, so unrealized losses deepen — both surface in the next EVE and AOCI run.
What It Means for Your Balance Sheet
Deposits. The hike resets the marginal cost of money: renewal betas are tested against a 4.45% top CD and 4.20% savings. Measure realized vs. modeled beta on each maturing tranche and re-check the deposit mix, since the industry’s Q2 growth leaned on uninsured balances.
Investments. New-money yields near 5% raise the return on maturing cash flow, while the curve backup deepens AFS marks. Both belong in the same EVE and AOCI run; the measurement is how far each moves capital and margin, not a view on any security.
IRR / ALCO. With the whole curve higher, EVE shifts further into the tightening scenarios and NII sensitivity re-anchors to the new base. Re-run NEV and the 5300/Call assumptions on the September close so the next ALCO reads off current levels.
Deposit Competition & Wholesale
ProductTop APYNote
Top 12-month CD4.45%Bankrate 1-yr CD list
High-yield savings4.20%Bankrate savings list
Money market4.05%Bankrate MM list
Deposit rates are annual percentage yields (APY), the top rates on Bankrate’s best-rate lists for each product, retrieved Sep 25, 2026. They are advertised consumer yields, not a survey of all banks, and not comparable one-for-one with a wholesale rate or an institution’s cost of funds.
Wholesale benchmark: discount window 4.00% (primary credit). FHLB advance and brokered CD indications are omitted: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available.
Banking & Industry
Q2 2026  FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: industry net income $90.1B (+12% from Q1), ROA 1.37%; domestic deposits +0.8% from Q1 (8th straight quarterly gain) but the mix tilted toward uninsured balances; unrealized securities losses $326.7B, up slightly from $325.1B in Q1 (5.5% of amortized cost, against 6.8% a year earlier).
Sep 24  Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03% (15-year 6.42%), both up on the week as long yields backed up — renewed pressure on housing demand.
Sep 2026  Deposit competition remains live: the top 12-month CD on Bankrate’s list near 4.45% APY and high-yield savings near 4.20% APY, keeping renewal betas under test after the September hike.
Regulatory Watch
Mar 19, 2026  Joint proposals to modernize the regulatory-capital framework (Basel III endgame re-proposal): a single capital calculation for the largest banks, better-aligned requirements for mid-size and smaller banks, and revised systemic-risk measurement. Now in post-comment review. [proposed (comment period closed Jun 18)] — Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC
Aug 27, 2026  Agencies finalized rules refocusing bank supervision on material financial risks. [finalized] — OCC, FDIC
2026  Proposed rule updating the treatment of bank merger transactions. [proposed] — FDIC (with DOJ/OCC coordination)
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This is a generic market brief — not tied to any institution, and not investment advice. It measures how the day’s moves affect a deposit-funded balance sheet generally; it does not recommend any securities transaction or deposit-pricing action.
Sources: U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve H.15 & FOMC; NY Fed; Freddie Mac PMMS; BLS; BEA; FDIC QBP; ICE BofA (FRED); Bankrate (retrieved Sep 25, 2026).
Full PDF edition available on request.
© 2026 Setnova Advisory · Treasury & ALM

On a phone, swipe sideways to read the full width. Levels are as of that morning and are not updated on this page. Corrected for this page: The Read said the FDIC’s Q2 profile showed margins still compressing; the FDIC reports the industry margin up 1 basis point. The equity values and their date labels are corrected to the Sep 24 closes (FRED); the Nasdaq and Dow values shown before were the Sep 23 closes. The Read said the curve lifted rather than steepened; 2s10s steepened 5 bp on the day. Market-implied odds, the dollar, oil, gold and wholesale funding indications are omitted: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available. The Regulatory Watch dated the supervision rule Sep 1, 2026; the agencies issued it Aug 27, 2026 (Sep 1 was its Federal Register publication). The Read said the dot plot clusters year-end near 4.1–4.4%; that range is the Fed’s published central tendency, and the median is 4.1%. One sentence said AFS marks were higher; higher yields lower AFS market values and deepen unrealized losses. The FDIC figures now say what they measure: net income up 12% from the prior quarter, and domestic deposits up 0.8% from the prior quarter. Deposit rates are labelled as APYs from Bankrate’s lists, not a market-wide survey. The losses line said they were down substantially from their peak; the FDIC reports them up slightly on the quarter, at 5.5% of amortized cost against 6.8% a year earlier. An item saying bank consolidation is accelerating is removed, and the merger-rule item no longer says consolidation activity is picking up: neither cited a primary source. The masthead and the rates heading now date each level: the Treasury curve is the Sep 24 close; EFFR, SOFR and the investment-grade spread are Sep 23 prints; policy rates are from the Sep 16 decision; other figures carry their own dates.

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