| Daily Desk Read · Complimentary Sample · Setnova Advisory |
SETNOVA ADVISORY · TREASURY & ALM Treasury Morning Brief A hawkish September hike lifts the whole curve — higher new-money yields, deeper marks, tighter EVE. Friday, September 25, 2026 · Treasury curve as of Sep 24 close; other levels dated where shown · Fed funds 3.75%–4.00% (raised Sep 16) |
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| The FOMC raised the funds target 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 — its first hike since 2023, on a unanimous vote — and the September projections put the year-end 2026 rate at a 4.1% median (central tendency 4.1–4.4%). Headline CPI at 3.4% y/y and core PCE at 3.3% y/y remain above target. Two-year Treasuries sit 99 bp above effective fed funds, a level consistent with markets pricing further tightening. |
| The curve sold off. The 2-year closed at 4.87% and the 10-year at 5.18%, near the top of its post-2007 range, with the 30-year at 5.47%. The slope stayed positive but shallow at +31 bp on 2s10s, 5 bp steeper than the day before. |
| For any deposit-funded balance sheet the tension is the same: higher new-money yields on one side, deeper AFS marks and tighter EVE on the other. The FDIC’s Q2 profile, from before the hike, showed the industry margin up 1 basis point as asset yields rose slightly faster than funding costs. What follows is market context, not investment advice. |
| Rates & Curve | curve Sep 24 close · EFFR, SOFR Sep 23 · policy rates Sep 16 |
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Fed funds target 3.75%–4.00% raised Sep 16 | EFFR 3.88% Sep 23 | SOFR 3.87% Sep 23 | 2Y UST 4.87% Sep 24 | 10Y UST 5.18% Sep 24 | 30Y UST 5.47% Sep 24 | 30Y mortgage 7.03% Freddie · Sep 24 | Core CPI y/y 2.4% August | Core PCE y/y 3.3% July | IG OAS 77 bp Sep 23 |
Policy corridor: IORB 3.90% · ON RRP 3.75% · discount window 4.00%. Inflation: headline CPI 3.4% y/y, core CPI 2.4% y/y (Aug); headline PCE 3.7% y/y, core PCE 3.3% y/y (Jul). Levels from U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, NY Fed and Freddie Mac. |
| Curve Snapshot & This Week’s Data | |
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Treasury curve ladder · Sep 24 close | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | | 4.24% | 4.34% | 4.51% | 4.87% | 5.03% | 5.18% | 5.47% |
2s10s +31 bp | 3M10Y +94 bp | 5s30s +44 bp |
| This week | Wed Sep 23 | S&P Global Flash PMIs (mfg + services), September | done | | Thu Sep 24 | Weekly jobless claims; New home sales (Aug) | done | | Fri Sep 25 | Durable goods (Aug); UMich consumer sentiment, revised (Sep) | today | | Wed Sep 30 | GDP Q2 third estimate + August Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) | ahead |
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S&P 500 7,704.13 Sep 24 close | Nasdaq 26,939.37 Sep 24 close | Dow 51,349.98 Sep 24 close | | The dollar, oil and gold are omitted on this page: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available. |
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Overnight & the curve SOFR printed 3.87% and EFFR 3.88%, both inside the new 3.75%–4.00% band, with IORB at 3.90% and the ON RRP floor at 3.75%. The front end has fully absorbed the hike; the back end did the work, with the 10-year at 5.18% and the 30-year at 5.47%. A shallow-but-positive slope (3M10Y +94 bp) reads as “higher, and higher for longer.” |
| Funding & deposit market Renewal betas are being tested against a 4.45% top 12-month CD and 4.20% savings, while the FDIC’s Q2 profile shows deposits still growing but the mix tilting toward uninsured balances. Wholesale sits alongside: the discount window 4.00% and FHLB advances tracking the short curve. New-money yields are higher, and AFS market values are lower, so unrealized losses deepen — both surface in the next EVE and AOCI run. |
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| What It Means for Your Balance Sheet | |
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| Deposits. The hike resets the marginal cost of money: renewal betas are tested against a 4.45% top CD and 4.20% savings. Measure realized vs. modeled beta on each maturing tranche and re-check the deposit mix, since the industry’s Q2 growth leaned on uninsured balances. |
| Investments. New-money yields near 5% raise the return on maturing cash flow, while the curve backup deepens AFS marks. Both belong in the same EVE and AOCI run; the measurement is how far each moves capital and margin, not a view on any security. |
| IRR / ALCO. With the whole curve higher, EVE shifts further into the tightening scenarios and NII sensitivity re-anchors to the new base. Re-run NEV and the 5300/Call assumptions on the September close so the next ALCO reads off current levels. |
| Deposit Competition & Wholesale | |
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| Product | Top APY | Note | | Top 12-month CD | 4.45% | Bankrate 1-yr CD list | | High-yield savings | 4.20% | Bankrate savings list | | Money market | 4.05% | Bankrate MM list |
Deposit rates are annual percentage yields (APY), the top rates on Bankrate’s best-rate lists for each product, retrieved Sep 25, 2026. They are advertised consumer yields, not a survey of all banks, and not comparable one-for-one with a wholesale rate or an institution’s cost of funds. |
| Wholesale benchmark: discount window 4.00% (primary credit). FHLB advance and brokered CD indications are omitted: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available. |
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| Q2 2026 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: industry net income $90.1B (+12% from Q1), ROA 1.37%; domestic deposits +0.8% from Q1 (8th straight quarterly gain) but the mix tilted toward uninsured balances; unrealized securities losses $326.7B, up slightly from $325.1B in Q1 (5.5% of amortized cost, against 6.8% a year earlier). |
| Sep 24 Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03% (15-year 6.42%), both up on the week as long yields backed up — renewed pressure on housing demand. |
| Sep 2026 Deposit competition remains live: the top 12-month CD on Bankrate’s list near 4.45% APY and high-yield savings near 4.20% APY, keeping renewal betas under test after the September hike. |
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| Mar 19, 2026 Joint proposals to modernize the regulatory-capital framework (Basel III endgame re-proposal): a single capital calculation for the largest banks, better-aligned requirements for mid-size and smaller banks, and revised systemic-risk measurement. Now in post-comment review. [proposed (comment period closed Jun 18)] — Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC |
| Aug 27, 2026 Agencies finalized rules refocusing bank supervision on material financial risks. [finalized] — OCC, FDIC |
| 2026 Proposed rule updating the treatment of bank merger transactions. [proposed] — FDIC (with DOJ/OCC coordination) |
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This is a generic market brief — not tied to any institution, and not investment advice. It measures how the day’s moves affect a deposit-funded balance sheet generally; it does not recommend any securities transaction or deposit-pricing action. Sources: U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve H.15 & FOMC; NY Fed; Freddie Mac PMMS; BLS; BEA; FDIC QBP; ICE BofA (FRED); Bankrate (retrieved Sep 25, 2026). Full PDF edition available on request. © 2026 Setnova Advisory · Treasury & ALM |