The Full Desk Read

A sample Full Desk Read

The Full Desk Read is the client edition: the same morning’s market read, rendered against one institution’s own book. This sample renders it against Sample Community Bank, N.A., the invented institution of about $2.75 billion that the Desk demonstration runs on. Every balance-sheet figure in it is made up; nothing comes from any client.

Sample edition of Friday, September 25, 2026. It measures what the day’s moves do to the sample bank’s balance sheet; it does not recommend any securities transaction or deposit-pricing action, and it is not investment advice.

Full Desk Read · ALCO Appendix · Illustrative Client Demo

SETNOVA ADVISORY · TREASURY & ALM

Treasury Full Desk Read

A hawkish September hike lifts the whole curve — higher new-money yields and a deeper AFS mark, at the same time.

Friday, September 25, 2026 · Treasury curve as of Sep 24 close; other levels dated where shown · Fed funds 3.75%–4.00% (raised Sep 16)

The Read

The FOMC raised the funds target 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 — the first increase since 2023, on a unanimous vote — and the September projections put the year-end 2026 rate at a 4.1% median (central tendency 4.1–4.4%). Headline CPI at 3.4% y/y and core PCE at 3.3% y/y remain above target. Two-year Treasuries sit 99 bp above effective fed funds, a level consistent with markets pricing further tightening.

The curve sold off broadly. The 2-year closed at 4.87% and the 10-year at 5.18%, around the top of its post-2007 range, with the 30-year at 5.47%. The slope is positive but shallow at +31 bp on 2s10s (3M10Y +94 bp), with 2s10s 5 bp steeper than the day before. The FDIC’s Q2 profile, from before the hike, showed the industry margin up 1 basis point as asset yields rose slightly faster than funding costs.

For a book like the illustrative one below the move cuts both ways: higher new-money yields lift the return on the ~$125M of securities cash flow arriving over the next year, while the curve backup deepens the AFS mark and pushes EVE further into the tightening scenarios. This brief measures both; it does not prescribe a response.

Rates & Funding

curve Sep 24 close · EFFR, SOFR Sep 23 · policy rates Sep 16

Fed funds target 3.75%–4.00% raised Sep 16	EFFR 3.88% Sep 23	SOFR 3.87% Sep 23	2Y UST 4.87% Sep 24	10Y UST 5.18% Sep 24
30Y UST 5.47% Sep 24	30Y mortgage 7.03% Freddie · Sep 24	Core CPI y/y 2.4% August	Core PCE y/y 3.3% July	IG OAS 77 bp Sep 23

Policy corridor: IORB 3.90% · ON RRP 3.75% · discount window 4.00%. Inflation: headline CPI 3.4% y/y, core CPI 2.4% y/y (Aug); headline PCE 3.7% y/y, core PCE 3.3% y/y (Jul).

Levels from U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, NY Fed and Freddie Mac.

Curve Snapshot & This Week’s Data

Treasury curve ladder · Sep 24 close

3M	6M	1Y	2Y	5Y	10Y	30Y
4.24%	4.34%	4.51%	4.87%	5.03%	5.18%	5.47%

2s10s

+31 bp

3M10Y

+94 bp

5s30s

+44 bp

This week

Wed Sep 23	S&P Global Flash PMIs (mfg + services), September	done
Thu Sep 24	Weekly jobless claims; New home sales (Aug)	done
Fri Sep 25	Durable goods (Aug); UMich consumer sentiment, revised (Sep)	today
Wed Sep 30	GDP Q2 third estimate + August Personal Income & Outlays (PCE)	ahead

Matched-term marginal funding (retail renewal, FHLB advance, brokered CD by tenor) is omitted on this page: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available for the wholesale indications.

Deposit Competition

Product	Top APY	Note
Top 12-month CD	4.45%	Bankrate 1-yr CD list
High-yield savings	4.20%	Bankrate savings list
Money market	4.05%	Bankrate MM list

Deposit rates are annual percentage yields (APY), the top rates on Bankrate’s best-rate lists for each product, retrieved Sep 25, 2026. They are advertised consumer yields, not a survey of all banks, and not comparable one-for-one with a wholesale rate or an institution’s cost of funds.

Markets Across the Tape

S&P 500 7,704.13 Sep 24 close	Nasdaq 26,939.37 Sep 24 close	Dow 51,349.98 Sep 24 close
The dollar, oil and gold are omitted (credit spreads are in the rates grid above) on this page: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available.

Your Balance Sheet This Morning

Illustrative ~$2.75B community bank · book figures dated 30 Jun – 22 Aug 2026; each figure's own date is on the Desk

Illustrative figures for demonstration — not a real institution and not investment advice.

NIM 3.32% 7th consecutive quarterly increase	Cost of deposits 1.92% beta 34% vs 45% modeled	AOCI −$41.4M up $4.6M QoQ (less negative)	Loans / deposits 85.1% liquidity 37.0%
Available liquidity $1,017M 37.0% of assets	Uninsured 27% 1.7× covered	Tier 1 9.6% leverage ratio	Sec. book yield 2.95% eff. duration 4.2y

Reinvestment measurement. ~$125M of securities cash flow rolls off a 2.95% book yield over the next year; each 25 bp between that book yield and whatever it earns next is on the order of $313k a year, gross, full-year, full deployment.

CD maturity schedule. The $155M Q3 tranche at ~4.35% reprices against the sample bank's own 4.00–4.10% renewal defense band; renewing 25–35 bp below the tranche rate is ~$0.4–0.5M a year on that tranche. Total $525M at a 4.09% weighted rate.

AOCI sensitivity. The ~$410M AFS book, at the whole securities portfolio’s 4.2-year effective duration, carries ~$4.3M of mark per 25 bp; the September move both deepens the mark and lifts new-money yields — measure both in the next run.

EVE position. At +300, EVE of −14.6% sits beyond the internal −13.75% watch trigger but within the −25% policy limit; NII stays inside the ±5/±10 limits across all shocks.

Banking & Industry

Q2 2026 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: industry net income $90.1B (+12% from Q1), ROA 1.37%; domestic deposits +0.8% from Q1 (8th straight quarterly gain) but the mix tilted toward uninsured balances; unrealized securities losses $326.7B, up slightly from $325.1B in Q1 (5.5% of amortized cost, against 6.8% a year earlier).

Sep 24 Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03% (15-year 6.42%), both up on the week as long yields backed up — renewed pressure on housing demand.

Sep 2026 Deposit competition remains live: the top 12-month CD on Bankrate’s list near 4.45% APY and high-yield savings near 4.20% APY, keeping renewal betas under test after the September hike.

Regulatory Watch

Mar 19, 2026 Joint proposals to modernize the regulatory-capital framework (Basel III endgame re-proposal): a single capital calculation for the largest banks, better-aligned requirements for mid-size and smaller banks, and revised systemic-risk measurement. Now in post-comment review. [proposed (comment period closed Jun 18)] — Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC

Aug 27, 2026 Agencies finalized rules refocusing bank supervision on material financial risks. [finalized] — OCC, FDIC

2026 Proposed rule updating the treatment of bank merger transactions. [proposed] — FDIC (with DOJ/OCC coordination)

Treasury Desk Watch

1.	Model the next EVE and AOCI run on the September close, so the deeper AFS mark and the higher new-money yields are measured together.
2.	Scenario-test the Q3 and Q4 CD tranches ($155M, then $134M) against a renewal band that now competes with a 4.45% top retail CD.
3.	Compare marginal funding tenor-by-tenor — retail renewal, FHLB advance, brokered CD — on all-in economics, not a single headline rate.
4.	Track the deposit mix: the industry’s Q2 growth tilted toward uninsured balances — measure what a similar tilt does to beta and liquidity here.
5.	Re-run liquidity coverage against $380M unpledged securities and $375M undrawn FHLB capacity under a fast-funding scenario.
6.	Watch the October 27–28 FOMC and the August PCE on the 30th; both feed the next repricing assumption set.

Make this brief about your book.

Setnova Advisory · Treasury & ALM — measurement-led treasury and ALM support for community banks and credit unions.

The balance-sheet figures above are illustrative, tied to a hypothetical ~$2.75B bank for demonstration only — not a real institution, not a recommendation, and not investment advice. This brief measures how the day’s moves affect a balance sheet; it does not advise on any securities or deposit-pricing action.

Sources: U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve H.15 & FOMC; NY Fed; Freddie Mac PMMS; BLS; BEA; FDIC QBP; ICE BofA (FRED); Bankrate (retrieved Sep 25, 2026).

Full PDF edition available on request.

On a phone, swipe sideways to read the full width. Levels are as of that morning and are not updated on this page. Corrected for this page: The Read said the FDIC’s Q2 profile showed margins still compressing; the FDIC reports the industry margin up 1 basis point. The Desk Watch named the September PCE for the 30th; that release carries August data. The equity values and their date labels are corrected to the Sep 24 closes (FRED); the Nasdaq and Dow values shown before were the Sep 23 closes. The Read said the curve lifted rather than steepened; 2s10s steepened 5 bp on the day. Market-implied odds, the dollar, oil, gold and wholesale funding indications are omitted: no primary source for the Sep 24 close was available. The Regulatory Watch dated the supervision rule Sep 1, 2026; the agencies issued it Aug 27, 2026 (Sep 1 was its Federal Register publication). The Read said the dot plot clusters year-end near 4.1–4.4%; that range is the Fed’s published central tendency, and the median is 4.1%. The FDIC figures now say what they measure: net income up 12% from the prior quarter, and domestic deposits up 0.8% from the prior quarter. Deposit rates are labelled as APYs from Bankrate’s lists, not a market-wide survey. The losses line said they were down substantially from their peak; the FDIC reports them up slightly on the quarter, at 5.5% of amortized cost against 6.8% a year earlier. The AOCI sensitivity line gave 4.2 years as the AFS book’s duration; it is the whole securities portfolio’s, applied to the AFS book. An item saying bank consolidation is accelerating is removed, and the merger-rule item no longer says consolidation activity is picking up: neither cited a primary source. The masthead and the rates heading now date each level: the Treasury curve is the Sep 24 close; EFFR, SOFR and the investment-grade spread are Sep 23 prints; policy rates are from the Sep 16 decision; other figures carry their own dates.

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